Turning the Corner — Just Slower than We Hoped

Spring is usually the busiest home sales month of the year. So, if you've been feeling like the market has been stuck in neutral lately, you're not imagining it. National Association of Realtors' Chief Economist Lawrence Yun recently revised his 2026 national forecast, cutting his expected growth in existing home sales from 14% down to just 4%. Here's what that means for us here in the East Bay.

Revised sales growth: +4%

Down from 14% forecast

Mortgage rate est. ~6.5%

Briefly dipped below 6%

Expected price growth: 3–4%

Supported by low supply

What Shifted —and Why

Rates that briefly flirted with the high 5% range crept back up to around 6.5%, weighed down by oil price volatility tied to global tensions. Job growth has cooled too —not a recession, Yun is quick to say, but a softer landing than expected. That combo of higher borrowing costs and slower hiring is keeping some buyers on the sidelines.

The Good News —Prices are Holding

Here's what matters most for East Bay homeowners: prices remain on solid ground. Limited inventory—a story we know all too well in Contra Costa and Alameda Counties—continues to prop up values. 

What This means for you

Whether you're thinking about buying, selling, or just wondering what your home is worth right now—this is a market that rewards preparation. 

Buyers who are ready to move when rates dip have an edge. 

Sellers with well-priced, well-presented homes are still getting attention.

The corner is being turned—it's just taking the scenic route. And in the East Bay, with our tight inventory and strong demand fundamentals, we remain in a better position than most of the country.

Questions about your home or the local market?

I'm always delighted to discuss what these national trends mean for your specific neighborhood—whether that's Walnut Creek, Lafayette, Danville, Pleasant Hill, or beyond. Reach out anytime; I'm always here for you!

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